I pass a MegaMillions billboard on my way to work, and let me tell you, it's hard to resist dropping a fin at the QT when the jackpot gets up to $100+ million. I know that I'm not going to win, but I think the problem is that I don't know that I'm going to lose.
It's said that lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math. There's two summary statements to back this up: "Someone's going to win, it just won't be you" (apparently from E*Trade ads), and "Everybody knows, or everybody should know, the Kelly Criterion for making optimal investments in a single two-valued opportunity. It's very simple; you invest your wealth, times the edge, divided by the variance of the bet." (from quants 'r' us)*
I'd encourage you to read the article, but what it boils down to is this: "No matter how big your edge gets, the Kelly Criterion says you never EVER invest a fraction of your wealth greater than the probability of losing it." Since the odds of winning the jackpot in MegaMillions is 1:135,145,920, the jackpot has to be over $135 million for it to be worth a $1 bet. Makes it a little clearer, even to this peabrain of mine.
What does that really mean? Of course! More money for beer!
* Let me clue you in on a little secret, folks. Quants (quantitative financial analysts) are literally fourth-derivative people in our little linear world. These guys make quantum physicists look about as smart as "you want fries with that?" Remember the Hillary Clinton commodity brokering scandal? Quants were watching that one like Wimbleton spectators at Centre Court. Quants read math with their Captain Crunch that makes my brain melt and trickle out through my ears. They can also pull down around $250 large working for international banks, and that's not too long after getting out of school, from what I understand.
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That's almost saying you'll never win a game of poker playing by yourself.